This is just my opinion and I finish my 50th year specializing in the leasing and selling of Eastbay commercial real estate. I’ve been through a number of transitions, when the market either goes up or down, and I still remember in my early days when the office vacancy rate in San Francisco was less…Read More→

“The growth of artificial intelligence and changes in working practices mean businesses are also more susceptible to change”.  As soon as office occupiers get into their space they may find it doesn’t operate the way they thought on paper. One solution is to use modular offices and meeting rooms instead of traditional hard-walled construction. “These are the…Read More→

The past almost-four months of the Iran war has injected some amount of business uncertainty into the commercial real estate arena. While we are in no way out of the woods yet, if this cease fire holds and both sides work torwards a mutually-benificial resololution  the war has had and will continue to have an…Read More→

Is there a dichotomy with AI companies leasing large amounts of the best Class A office space in a number of subregions, while at the same time these firms are promoting use of A1 to dramatically reduce headcount? “Tens or hundreds of millions of square feet of effectively obsolete office space dot the country, unlikely…Read More→

  If  I had relocated my home during Covid and have been working from home ever snce, and now was being forced to commute one or two hours a day each way to get to the office, how happy would I be? he Union of State Attorneys is claiming that forcing these employees back to…Read More→

Published in the Spring 2026 SIOR Report, various SIOR brokers shared what they viewed what makes a successful office building….”a best-in-class amenity experience…such an experience might include bars, saunas, pickleball courts, treadmill desks, cold plunges, banquet seating, laundry services and wellness rooms.” “Amenities are no longer a luxury. They’re a necessity and standard.” Another broker…Read More→

Headlines in the May 21, 2026, SF Registry read “San Francisco captures 80% of all U.S. AI Venture Capital of Office Leasing Snaps Back”, ‘Ai companies have leased 10.6 million square feet of office space in the city since 2019, more than any other market in the world”.   However, the San Francisco office vacancy is…Read More→

BisNow April 27, 202,6 reported that the three largest office-to-residental markets are New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Chicago has a conversion pipeline of 5,000 units while Washington D.C. with the fourth-largest market for conversions had a 4,167 unit pipeline. The typical office conversion candidate is an older building with smaller floorplates in the core…Read More→

“Overall vacancy closed Q1 at 28.7%, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2019. San Francisco recorded its largest quarterly net occupancy gain in more than six years.” Derrick Daniels, Regional Research Director for Colliers International shared with me his latest findings. Currently ter ear 227 companies looking for over 7,500,000 square feet of San…Read More→

I sometimes get swept up in the grand scheme of what AI is doing to make corporations and their processes more efficient, but I saw a recent quote that brought it closer to home for me. n The San Francisco Business Times April 16, 2026, quoting Wen Sang, Co-founder of Genspark AI which had two…Read More→

Headlines from just one page of the San Francisco Business Times April 16, 2026 read as follows: Harvey AI doubles Space in Headquarters; Howard Street is Site of Anthropic Leasing Spree; Large Office Tenants Circle San Francisco Market Again…it appears there are dozens of 100,000 sf plus office prospects currently looking for San Francisco office…Read More→

Even with Ai companies taking down millions of square feet of San Francisco Class A office space, the 123 Mission Street office building in the financial District of San Francisco was purchased by Juul I June 2009 for $397 million, a hefty $1,093/sf, to accommodate the rapid growth of its vaping business. This 363,000 square…Read More→

Silicon Valley helped put the San Francisco/Bay Area including Silicon Valley on the map back in the 1970’s, and South San Francisco is the 2nd biggest Biotech center after Boston-Cambridge. Genetech just unveiled its $5 billion dollar plan to overhaul its 225-acre campus in South San Francisco. Last year the San Francisco Bay Area had…Read More→

Tesla can lease space anywhere they want, but as another case in point of how strong California is, Tesla just leased 108,000 square feet of research and development space at 45401 Research Drive in Fremont. Take that, Texas!

SF Business Times 1/20/26 “The tech industry’s embrace of stricter return-to-office policies will help fuel a 15% increase in San Francisco office leasing this year, real estate software company VTS said. The city’s fast-growing AI companies also will help ease almost 13 million square feet of San Francisco office space this year, VTS predicted.” I…Read More→

“For the past four years, the city has been rolling out the red carpet for developers or building owners to convert underutilized historic office buildings: cutting fees, slicing red tape, relaxing zoning restrictions, and eliminating both affordable housing requirements and transfer taxes. The city has about 30 million square feet of vacant office space. Despite…Read More→

First, Anthropic just leased 480,000 square feet of Class A office space at 300 Howard Street in downtown San Francisco for a 13-year lease term. Next, Roblox leased 325,000 square feet at San Mateo’s Bay Meadows and will have a total of 1 million square feet of office space. Thirdly, Tiger Global Management just signed…Read More→

Not sure of the dicotimy but the SF Business Times headlins 1/16/26 read “Signs of Promise for Oakland’s Office Market” and the subheading rea “Vacancy Rises but Net Absorption Drops in Optimistic Signal”…Where I grew up when the vacancy rate rises and net absorption drops, this is the opposite of any positive signs…then in today’s…Read More→

East Bay Times 1/28/26  “Pinterest plans to lay off under 15% of its workforce, as part of broader restructuring that arrives as the image-sharing platform pivots more of its money to artificial intelligence. Beyond the coming layoffs, Pinterest said it will reduce office space. isn’t the first company to turn to job cuts while pivoting…Read More→

The San Francisco Business Times (1/9/25) reported that 6.8 million feet of San Francisco office space has been leased to AI companies! Wow! They also stated “Underused empty office buildings in the East Bay’s suburban markets are being eyed for residential developments in record numbers. So far, 1.3 million square feet of office space has…Read More→

Basically, there has been little news over the past month. AI continues to lease space in San Francisco, tech companies have been purchasing  office buildings in Silicon Valley, foreclosures and discounted commercial property debt continue, there is a lot of capital looking for solid investments, the $1-5 million dollar mom & pop retail and warehouse…Read More→

CoStar November 30, 2025 reported on a study by MIT that artificial intelligence is now able to replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market. This is The Project Iceberg Project Iceberg – Coordinating the Human-AI Future which focuses on 151 million working Americans and projects 13,741 workers apparently can or will be replaced by AI,…Read More→

There has been so much positive news about new lease signings, some of them very signficant, and mostly fueled by the AI explosion which fortunately has been centered in San Francisco. Billions of dollars in new fundings and millions of feet of office space leased during the past year by this one industry category. However,…Read More→

  Office building sales continue to experience at times significant discounts as compared to pre-Covid values, and as a recent case in point 2001 Broadway in Oakland, California, a 56,000 square foot office building just closed escrow in October at a 76% price drop as compared to what it was purchased for in 1016.  $19.5…Read More→

According to a recent article by George Avalos in the East Bay Times, “An estimated 60% of the workforce physically located at Bishop Ranch has returned to the campus…by comparison, the turn-to-office rate was 49% for Silicon Valley and 41.8% for San Francisco, according to figures produced by Kastel Access Control System. Workers also appear…Read More→

FastCompany 10/28/25 reporting on Amazon announcing 14,000 layoffs, citing AI innovation, “While the memo makes clear that artificial intelligence is ushering in rapid changes that will result in leaner operations, an Amazon source said that AI was not behind the vast majority of the layoffs.”  These are not warehouse layoffs but ’corporate workforce’ employees who…Read More→

Databricks is looking for 200,000 sf in Sunnyvale, another AI company making the news. Neuralink just took 144,000 sf at 499 Forbes Blvd. in South San Francisco. Pump.co leased 36,000 sf at 455 Market Street, AI Startup Abridge leased 80,000 sf at 208 Utah St., Anthropic took 104,000sf at Foundry Square III, Resolve I leased…Read More→

According to Derek Daniels, Regional Research Director for Colliers International, “In terms of the latest on tenant touring demand, “There are close to 7 million square feet of active office tenant requirements in San Francisco. This includes large blocks requirements seeking to expand. Ai and related industries are driving growth in the San Francisco office…Read More→

Tech companies have placed 373 office spaces on the market for sublease, with tech companies responsible for 82% of this. Some of the larger spaces include: XCorp 468,855 rsf; One Tenth 313,229 rsf; Cruise 333,345 rsf; Meta 265,088 rsf, Charles Schwab 259,977 rsf Dropbox 196,425 rsf Xynga 185,118 rsf, Airbnb 150,656 rsf; Salesforce 148,910 rsf,…Read More→

I recently attended a presentation by Ken Larson, President of  Blueline Associates, Inc., a commercial construction company based in Pleasanton in business for over thirty years. I had asked Ken to address how we real estate brokers can assist our clients, both from the tenant as well as landlord side, in keeping tenant improvement costs…Read More→

I have been hearing the rumors for several months, and there is still no official confirmation but yet another Class A major office complex out in the suburbs of San Ramon, California may be headed for demolition. I tried to tour an office client through 2000 Canyon Place which has a twin to tallying 320,000…Read More→

According to articles from CBS and Sacramento Bee (8/12/25), “A new audit found that the State of California could save hundreds of millions of dollars a year by not enforcing return-to-office orders for state workers. The audit comes amid the saga for state workers and the political debate between remote versus in-person work. It found that…Read More→

The good news is “The Brookings Institution published a report that confirms that the Ba Area is the epicenter of the AI race in the U.S. The report calls the San Franisco and san Jose areas a “superstar cluster”…While AI-related job postings only make up 2.5% of all job openings nationally,  the Bay Area has…Read More→

David Amsterdam, President, Capital Markets for Colliers had a few noteworthy comments. “Office vacancies set another all-time high, though they are increasing at a more moderate pace.” Nice spin…’Supply-side pressure has all but shut down, setting the stage for recovery in the quarters ahead….Economic uncertainty has many occupiers in a wait-and-see holding pattern. The market…Read More→

  June 10, 2025 I stuck my neck out and delcared that the officical ‘Bottom of the Office Market’ day…since then other corporations have added return-to-office mandates, but one of the strongest cases for the future return of the office was the announcement by Hines that they would like to build a 1,225 foot office…Read More→

The Guardian July 13, 2025 “With financial districts struggling to bounce back to full capacity post-Covid, and the nightlife industry facing an existential crisis, there are suggestions clubs could move into deserted office blocks at evenings and weekends. In its annual eccentric report on the future of leisure, the creative studio Bompas and Parr says…Read More→

Lawrence Stone , Santa Clara County Assessor, Always Has Great Insights!   My favorite County Assessor in the entire Country has been Lawrence Stone, who is retiring from Santa Clara County Assessor after over three decades in this role and 47 years as a public servant. His Annual Report is superb, loaded with facts and…Read More→

Over my past 45 years of predicting where we are in the office market, and my published and printed newsletters sent out every other month will attest to how lucky and accurate I have been so far…well, I hereby declare June 10, 2025 as the official bottom of the office market…I am seeing more and…Read More→

The good news is that more people are coming to work in downtown San Francisco in 2025. “Office badge-swipe data compiled by the security company Kastle from select buildings in the San Francisco area continue to show weekly office-occupancy numbers compared to pre-COVID attendance being among the lowest of 10 metropolitan areas. For the week ending…Read More→

Bisnow May 29, 205, according to a CBRE report, “Artificial intelligence (AI) development likely will be a sizable driver of U.S. office demand over the next decade considering the impact it is already having on the country’s tech epicenter of San Francisco. AI-related companies have leased more than 5 million sq. ft. of San Francisco…Read More→

SF Business Times May 9, 2025 “Remote job postings in San Francisco have plunged 71% over the past three years, as employers claim leverage and a new generation of AI companies dries a return to in-person work…The shift refkects a cooling labor market and a rising number of companies from Uber to JPmorganChase mandating office…Read More→

  45 Fremont Street, San Francisco, a 620,000 square foot Class A office property owned by Shorenstein and Blackstone, goes back to market at direction of  lender Bank of America. With a loan value of $347 million this puts the debt at $560/SF, which pre-covid would make sense but in today’s office sale market with…Read More→

  On the one hand we have the recent announcement that the 260,000 SF Pacific Plaza office building at 1340 Treat Blvd. in Walnut Creek, directly across the street from the Pleasant Hill Bart Station, Class A and mostly leased to credit tenants, but plans now underway to replace it with 400 housing units. On…Read More→

While I am all for positive news, especially when it comes to the office market, sometimes articles are done in a possibly misleading spin. TheRegistry on April 22, 2025, headlined “JPMorgan Chase Plans to Expand Lease at San Francisco/s 560 Mission t 280,000 SQFT”. The article starts as follows: ”JPMorgan Chase & Co. is doubling…Read More→

As reported in the Colliers U.S. Leading Office Markets Q1 2025 report, “Across the 14 gateway regions, 52.8% of the total construction pipeline is preleased. Of the 10.4  MSF of preleasing in active construction buildings (for leases over 50,000 SF in size), FIRE tenants committed to 61.2% of new space. Wells Fargo has preleased 1.2…Read More→