There is a Reason My Blogs Have Been Recently Quiet

Basically, there has been little news over the past month. AI continues to lease space in San Francisco, tech companies have been purchasing  office buildings in Silicon Valley, foreclosures and discounted commercial property debt continue, there is a lot of capital looking for solid investments, the $1-5 million dollar mom & pop retail and warehouse market has buyers lined up, many all-cash, but many of the owners are in their 70’s and 80’s, have no debt, virtually no vacancy (which happens when you keep your rents below market) and see no reason whatsoever to sell.  “More than $21.3 billion in CMBS office loan balances are coming due through the end of 2026, split almost evenly between pre-2026 maturities at $10.6 billion and 2026 maturities at $10.8 billion, according to CoStar data analysis. Among office loans that matured before 2026 and still have balances outstanding, 83.7% show delinquencies and 92.7% require special servicing due to loan repayment or payoff problems, according to CMBS loan data. Those will be the hardest to refinance, analysts say. “What we can say for sure is that the delinquency rate on office CMBS loans has been trending steadily upward since early 2023 to an all-time high,” said Phil Mobley, national director of U.S. office analytics for CoStar. “More qualitatively, some lenders tell me that office isn’t necessarily off the table for them, but there are some challenges to work through. An asset needs a strong story, and both the lender and the borrower need to have conviction on that story.” A likely outcome for many properties, Mobley said, is a continuation of extending loans — if it is reasonable to do so.” So with that let’s all welcome in 2026, hope for lower interest rates, a continued return to office by employees, and regardless and despite all this, have a wonderful New Year celebration!