I have been participating in several AI/Commercial Real Estate programs and just learned something most of you may already know. Make sure you understand the terms of use of whatever Ai Chatbot program you are using, with the paid programs perhaps less problematic than the free ones. Some folks are downloading their leases for almost-instantly…Read More→

About to close escrow, according to TheRegistry-9/18/25, 201 California Street, San Francisco, a 272,000 square foot office property which was purchased in December 2019 for $239 million, $878/sf, may be going now for$57 million, $250/sf and a 75% discount…

Over my past 45 years of predicting where we are in the office market, and my published and printed newsletters sent out every other month will attest to how lucky and accurate I have been so far…well, I hereby declare June 10, 2025 as the official bottom of the office market…I am seeing more and…Read More→

  Much of the United States office markets are still experiencing vacancy rates in around 20%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area even higher, with Oakland at 29% and San Francisco at 35%. I have mentioned previously that the Amazon announcement mandating five-day a week return to office may have a positive impact on…Read More→

In an article in Facility Executives February 2023, many commercial building automation systems (BAS) are integrated and efficient, operating the HVAC,  elevators, building security, parking garages, and all the other building elements   but “these systems typically have subpar cybersecurity controls and a large number of vulnerable IoT (Internet of Things) that make them ‘highly vulnerable…and…Read More→

San Francisco office vacancy, according to a number of reports, is in the22% range, but when you include occupied space that is available this figure increases to almost 30%. With two million square feet of office sublease space in leases that expire by the end of 2023, this space may go back to the landlords….Read More→

Manufacturing has been well aware of cybersecurity risks for years, and remember last year when one of the largest meat processors was shut down due to getting hacked, costing them millions in downtown and ransom? With so much of major office building technology going into the cloud and The Internet of Things (IoT) now connecting…Read More→

BizNews 9/6/22 had a great quote that to me sums up the dilemma many corporate executives are now facing. “What is the purpose of an office?” said Matthew Saxon, Zoom’s chief people officer. “It’ll be different for different companies, but one of the things I think this huge experience we’ve all been a part of…Read More→

  The SF Business Times August 28, 2022 reported “The owners of nine San Francisco properties assessed at more than $100 million are scheduled to appear before a city board to reduce their assessments be cut in half”. They claim that the pandemic impact in 2021 dramatically affected their property values. I added up the…Read More→

Yesterday I attended a commercial real estate major investor and developer panel put on by my Northern California SIOR chapter at San Francisco’s Ferry Building  Overall everyone was very optimistic about 2022 and 2023. Paul Single with City National Bank told us our economy was unbelievably strong and interest rates were already up 175 basis…Read More→

Bisnow Jan. 23, 2022 reported national office occupancy rates, which had risen to 39% in November, 2022, is slowly back on the rise and now averages 36%.  However, the demand for office space has stalled and is at 58% of pre-pandemic levels. It had hit 87% in August 2021 when we thought we were out…Read More→

  Yesterday Slack’s CEO called ‘Return to Work a Doomed Approach’ and put 208,000 square feet of space on the San Francisco sublet market. The SF Registry reported on Slack, “Communication software firm Slack has decided that the future of work is not necessarily in the office and has placed 208,460 square feet of space…Read More→

There have been recent reports out that the national office sublease vacancy has decreased over the past several months. Cushman Wakefueld put a positive spin on this, which is welcome considering all the negative press the office market has had since Covid first struck, with the office availability going down from 146.3 million square feet…Read More→

#SIORDeloitte just came out with a CEO Survey that found CEOs expect one-third of their workforce to continue working from him in January 2022 and anticipate needed 26% less office space in 2022, compared to 2019 levels. In pre-Covid for the most part most employees were expected to come into the office every day, but…Read More→

Updater is a relocation app that helps Americans with various tasks that come up with a relocation, such as hooking up to Internet, getting your mail forwarded, updating your various records, etc. They track who is going where in the U.S.  From migration analysis of 300,000 moves, less folks are leaving San Francisco than in…Read More→

Bisnow reported today on a Stanford and Hoover Institution working paper titled ‘Why Working From Home Will Stick’ ‘that the amount of work undertaken from home in the U.S. will rise from about 5% before the pandemic to about 20% after the pandemic. They surveyed 30,000 U.S. workers multiple times and asked them to report…Read More→

  Even though some of you think California is losing all our major corporations and tons of our residents, and yes, we are letting a few out of this paradise of high taxes, high utilities,  and sometimes challenging politics, but the San Francisco Business Times reported on today’s Time Magazine 100 Most Influential Company list…Read More→

Bisnow April 20, 2021  Survey by Savills reports “Seventy-three percent of the respondent companies said that their employees will be in centralized offices at least three days a week, while very few (4%) expect all their workers to be required to show up in person five days a week. A vast majority of companies (79%) are…Read More→

The highways in the Bay Area seemed to be back to grid-lock during commute periods, and part of this can be attributed to workers avoiding public transportation and driving to work. As of April 21, 2021 Bart ridership was down 86% from its baseline. Out in the suburbs the majority of office building parking lots…Read More→

Last week I wason a national Zoom call with 60 fellow SIOR members. While the office market in most areas has been hit by heavy amounts of office sublease space put on the market and corporate indecision on where and how much office space will be taken down long-term, the industrial market has been off…Read More→

The Colliers Capital Markets recent report on where national CMBS delinquencies stand had overall improvement for the eighth straight month, with Industrial (0.9%), office (2%) and multifamily (2.3%)  having the lowest delinquency rates. Hotel delinquencies are the highest (16.4%), , with retail second (11.8%). “The Mortgage Bankers Association notes that 5.2% of commercial and multifamily…Read More→

There have been a number of major tech and finance companies over the past nine months who have announced long-term stay-at-home policies, prompting thousands of employees to uproot their families, relocate to a much less expensive region, purchase a new home, and begin to enjoy life with less financial stress. Many companies have had detailed…Read More→

  The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors sent out a great short video that you can access at www.SIOR.com/snapshot. Here are the highlights: Industrial real estate confidence is high at 6.9 (out of 10), while office confidence is low at 4.7. “The pandemic continues to negatively affect almost all market sectors…and is expected to…Read More→

According to a recent report by CBRE, Silicon Valley will be one of the hottest markets, nationwide, for future office development. “The San Jose metro area, defined as Santa Clara County, is touted as the No. 1 market for future development of office space and is also seen as an excellent market for retail and…Read More→

In Bill Gladstone’s excellent Real Estate Review (he is a top commercial SIOR broker in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania), author Jesse Harlan discusses potential exposure of commercial property owners if their building is vacant, and even if it is partially or fully leased but due to the pandemic not fully occupied…there still might be exposure to the…Read More→

According to the East Bay Times reporter George Avalos, California lost 1.41 million jobs last year. Ouch! Michael Bernick, employment attorney with Duane Morris and former EDD Director, said “We are looking at a much more gradual recovery than first hoped, and a lot of jobs that were lost are going to be lost permanently,…Read More→

David Amsterdam, President of Colliers Capital Markets, just sent out a bulletin with the following bullet points: Q4 negative absorption of 40.9 million sf is second-highest on record…ten metros posted negative absorption of at least one million (New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago)…Sublease space now a record 188 million sf. I have been doing…Read More→

But the real story is a number of reports predicting that Corporate America will be downsizing by 25% of its total office space. This means we may have 1,561,273,198 square feet of vacant office space as companies trend towards partial or total long-term work-from-home strategies, which means we have another 773 million square feet of…Read More→

Last week Oracle placed three of their Peninsula office buildings on the for-sale market, after announcing a few weeks ago they were moving their headquarters to Texas. Now NetApp just announced they will sell their 702,200 square foot Sunnyvale office campus. They have not announced leaving California…yet.  I started researching all the links to states…Read More→

At a recent webinar where I forecast what was going to happen in the various commercial real estate segments over the next few years we had several surveys. One was asking our audience, which included CPA’s, bankers, realtors and lawyers, when they thought the office market was going to return, and the overwhelming consensus was…Read More→

  It is bad enough that San Francisco Bay Area corporations are putting leased space on the sublease market, packing up and moving part of their operations to Texas or elsewhere, but when major companies begin putting their office campuses on the ‘for sale’ market this is a much more serious sign of what might…Read More→

In a survey of 150 C-suite executives conducted by the firm West Monroe, 29% are considering relocating their operations out of state or out of the country due to the high cost of living and high tax burdens. The top relocation is Texas, and the largest region of where these companies will be relocated from…Read More→

  Colliers just completed a study Implications of COVID-19 on the Workplace with data from more than 5,000 global respondents.  76% reported same or improved levels of productivity. 74% felt connected to their team even though not physically with them  67% experienced improvement in work-life balance, and 83% wanted to work from home at least…Read More→

  This was  the headline of a Bisnow report from a few days ago, citing 42 million square feet of new subleases hitting the market with 73 U.S. markets reporting negative absorption. Then the next day the Colliers ‘Disruption 2020: Office Sublease Continues To Rise, reporting that sublease space is 30 million higher than it…Read More→

One idea is, using your exclusive tenant rep broker, to go after office subleases that might be much larger than your initial requirement but can accommodate your growth longer-term, and then make aggressive offers (yes, I know this will irritate some listing  agents) 50% or even 25% of asking…in today’s market there may be Sub-landlords…Read More→

I’ve been researching just how safe elevators are during a pandemic, and while the risk factor might be low, you are still better off not having to ride in one. Is the cab small, limited to just one or two people, or  is it a larger elevator cab that can hold 4 standing 6 feet…Read More→

Maya Donnon, Sven Schroeter of KSS Architects (among other co-authors) in a Corenet Global article titled ‘Why Workplace’ discuss the paradox corporate America is going through. They cite Facebook who has committed remote work as a permanent option for its employees while at the same time committing to millions of feet of new office space….Read More→

BISNOW Oct. 30, 2020 reports that real estate companies think they’ll need less office space. “More than any other industry, real estate has a vested interest in making sure office occupiers don’t cut their real estate footprint. Office is the largest of the real estate asset classes, and a reduction in demand would lead to…Read More→

At a recent SIOR National Conference I heard of Amazon 3-5 story 70’ clear warehouses, 3-story warehouses for high-valued land, last mile, using steel supports and costing three times the normal cost of a warehouse, and one of the largest warehouse developers in the world said we had a demand for 400 million square feet…Read More→

  Stephen Newbold, National Director of Office Research for Colliers International reported that in Q3 of 2020 the United States experienced 33.5 million sf of negative absorption and office subleases in the US hit a record at 168.8 million sf. This is more distressing than we experienced during the Great Recession. The bad news was…Read More→

  A number of large office users have delayed the return to their offices until mid-2021, while others have told their employees they can work remotely permanently. Facebook and other major players have allowed their employees to relocate to lower-cost regions, some taking a pay cut but still saving substantially over their previous San Francisco…Read More→

  Office subleases are hitting the markets bigtime, from New York to San Francisco, Boston, Houston and many other major markets. Millions of square feet of excess space, with millions more expected to follow. Companies are finding that they can not only survive with working from home, many are thriving, despite the absence of corporate…Read More→

Bloomberg News reported September 25, 2020 that Deutsche Bank AG is considering a hybrid model of allowing staff to split work between office and home, although a Morgan Chase spokesperson warned that staff productivity might slip if they work remotely too long, and a UBS Group spokesperson commented that working from home makes it harder…Read More→

  A report just out by the California Economic Forecast predicts more doom and gloom than I would have liked to have read. “The economy however is not back to the pre-crisis status. During most of Calendar 2020 and in much of the first half of 2021, ongoing economic restrictions will have resulted in millions…Read More→

A report just released by Colliers International on the top 25 US Metro Office Markets, show Atlanta on top with 2,055,717 sf of YTD positive net absorption, while New York (Manhattan) had a negative net absorption of 3,375248 sf and San Francisco had a negative net absorption of 3,004,410 sf. Other notables was Seattle with…Read More→