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Is this the first signs of a cool-down of the San Francisco office market?

Nov 13, 2019 | Posted by Jeff Weil | Commercial Real Estate, Newsletter, Office Space, Sublease |

Having been through a number of economic booms and then downturns I like to be alert to early warning signs of an impending office slow-down in one of the hottest office markets in the US, San Francisco. We don’t have to worry about a suburban slow-down as Contra Costa and the Tri-Valley never took off after the Great Recession, with no new construction, almost no tech and few and far between major office leases. However, San Francisco has been on fire, with millions of feet of new Class A office space with rents $85-100/rsf per annum and a fear the City wouldn’t have enough vacant space to fill demand.  Now, with the possibility of WeWork slowing or reversing their huge space appetite, and the announcement today that Uber wants to sublease 730,000 square feet in downtown San Francisco is this even a hint that the tide may be changing? Stay tuned!

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During 2019 in the City of Walnut Creek, California, only counting office buildings over 20,000 square feet, there were over 876,596 square feet of buildings sold for a combined sales value of $389,473,000. San Francisco reports that office sales doubled year-over-year. During the third quarter, $2.6 billion dollars of San Francisco office buildings sold totaling 3.3 million square feet. These are huge transfer tax generators and as I have done in the past, caution the various government agencies not to count this a reoccurring revenue stream as this phenomenon is not sustainable in the long run and should not be used for long-term budgeting. Enjoy it while we have it, but at least for the East Bay we have had the majority of our Class A office properties change hands over the past five years, and there is only so much you can squeeze out of an office building, even with rising rents.

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Jeffrey Weil, CCIM, MCR.h, SIOR

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Phone: +1 925 279 5590
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  • Jeffrey Weil
  • Colliers International
  • 1850 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200
  • +1 (925) 279 5590
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Contact Information

  • Jeffrey Weil
  • Colliers International
  • 1850 Mount Diablo Blvd., suite 200
  • CA Lic. 00786195
  • +1 (925) 279 5590
  • jeff.weil@colliers.com
  • www.officetimes.com

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