39% of Small Business Owners Said They Would Fire Employees Who Refuse to Come Back to the Office, and in the same survey 39% said they would not. In an article in the San Francisco Business Times July 8, 2021, Digital.com surveyed 1,500 small business owners. ‘But about 47% of business owners who say…Read More→

#SIORDeloitte just came out with a CEO Survey that found CEOs expect one-third of their workforce to continue working from him in January 2022 and anticipate needed 26% less office space in 2022, compared to 2019 levels. In pre-Covid for the most part most employees were expected to come into the office every day, but…Read More→

Updater is a relocation app that helps Americans with various tasks that come up with a relocation, such as hooking up to Internet, getting your mail forwarded, updating your various records, etc. They track who is going where in the U.S.  From migration analysis of 300,000 moves, less folks are leaving San Francisco than in…Read More→

At a recent commercial brokers meeting filled with industry experts…apartment house cap rates in the Bay Area are averaging 4.3%, even though apartment vacancy rates have almost doubled since the pre-pandemic, going from 4% two years ago to 7.6% currently. The eviction moratorium is about to expire in many regions and this might cause a…Read More→

Bisnow reported today on a Stanford and Hoover Institution working paper titled ‘Why Working From Home Will Stick’ ‘that the amount of work undertaken from home in the U.S. will rise from about 5% before the pandemic to about 20% after the pandemic. They surveyed 30,000 U.S. workers multiple times and asked them to report…Read More→

A report just out from Colliers has the I.S. office vacancy rate at 14.2%, with 45 million square feet of negative absorption during the first quarter of 2021, and a record 200,000,000 square feet of available sublease space. Ouch! “Recovery in the office market is set to lag, record levels of sublease space and negative…Read More→

There is a report out today from the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics that predicts due to the post-pandemic work-from-home shift there will be a potential impact on downtowns and retail that formerly relied on office workers as their customers. Just think, even if employees were allowed to work from home just…Read More→

On the one hand we are hearing about major tech companies announcing a phased return-to-the-office,  with announcements by most of the big boys like Facebook, Salesforce and Google. On the other hand, Airbnb just announced today it was expanding its sublease inventory to 438,000 square feet,  which adds 287,000 square feet to its previous space…Read More→

The San Francisco Business Times May 13, 2021 reported on a survey taking by Blind, an anonymous professional network, who asked over 3,000 employees if they would rather work from home permanently or get a $30,000 raise and 64% said they would rather work from home.  Employees of two companies  would take the cash over…Read More→

  Bisnow 5/12/21, I was surprised  by the following quote: “Real estate attorneys surveyed by Bloomberg Law are almost all predicting defaults in retail and hospitality properties in 2021, but they also predict that office properties will see a large share of defaults this year. Ninety-four percent of the respondents picked retail as one of…Read More→

  Bisnow May 2, 2021 reported that around the country office space tours were up 28% from February to March, and although this increase in interest has not yet turned into actual leasing industry experts believe companies are getting ready to return to the office. Google just announced today that most workers will have to…Read More→

The Bay Area Council surveyed 1,000 voters and 47% said they might leave the bay Area over the next few years. Of that group, 88% said they would leave California, The respondents citing high taxes, the high cost of living and housing costs doubled over the past few years. Texas, Arizona and New Mexico were…Read More→

According to the San Francisco Business Times April 30, 2021, Austin, Texas averaged a 30.8% office occupancy rate while San Francisco had a 12.2% office occupancy rate during the pandemic. There may be several reasons for this, including Texas’s much looser restrictions during the pandemic and in Austin many employees drive to work. In San…Read More→

One of the country’s largest owner of office buildings is Boston Properties, and today they announced that this Labor Day, September 6, 2021 will mark the official day when the office market will  turn around. Boston Properties has 195 properties with more than 51 million square feet, and it is ready to take advantage of…Read More→

  Even though some of you think California is losing all our major corporations and tons of our residents, and yes, we are letting a few out of this paradise of high taxes, high utilities,  and sometimes challenging politics, but the San Francisco Business Times reported on today’s Time Magazine 100 Most Influential Company list…Read More→

There are currently 9.5 million square feet of office sublease space available in San Francisco today, with an overall vacancy rate above 19%. Landlord reps are still optimistic that the market will come back as more people get vaccinated, while the tenant-biased reps remind us that this it the time to snatch up bargain sublease…Read More→

The highways in the Bay Area seemed to be back to grid-lock during commute periods, and part of this can be attributed to workers avoiding public transportation and driving to work. As of April 21, 2021 Bart ridership was down 86% from its baseline. Out in the suburbs the majority of office building parking lots…Read More→

Last week I wason a national Zoom call with 60 fellow SIOR members. While the office market in most areas has been hit by heavy amounts of office sublease space put on the market and corporate indecision on where and how much office space will be taken down long-term, the industrial market has been off…Read More→

In today’s East Bay Times a recent poll of Bay Area residents concluded that 20% of those surveyed felt working in the office was ‘very unsafe’ and 33% felt it was ‘somewhat unsafe’ in a poll of 1,000 registered voters for the Bay Area Council.  This means more than half polled  did not feel safe…Read More→

Gensler, the largest architectural firm in the United States with a roster of some of the world’s largest corporate clients, has been studying the future of office space design. Outdoor spaces will be utilized for meeting areas, on rooftops, courtyards and nearby public areas. Safety for the employee will be forefront as the pandemic winds…Read More→

In the SF Business Times April 1, 2021, John McNellis, who is one of the top Retail industry gurus, reflected on what retail types thrived during the past years pandemic, and which didn’t. Home Depot and others in that category had a great year as those stuck at home worked on remodeling projects. Netflix did…Read More→

Wells Fargo just told its employees that employees would be coming back to the office after Labor Day. “We believe most of us benefit by being physically together”, Wells told employees. They currently have 200,000 employees working from home. Google said some of its U.S. employees could return t the offices this month in a…Read More→

The Colliers Capital Markets recent report on where national CMBS delinquencies stand had overall improvement for the eighth straight month, with Industrial (0.9%), office (2%) and multifamily (2.3%)  having the lowest delinquency rates. Hotel delinquencies are the highest (16.4%), , with retail second (11.8%). “The Mortgage Bankers Association notes that 5.2% of commercial and multifamily…Read More→

According to George Avalos, business reporter for the East Bay Times, “California’s job market should outpace the nation’s employment performance during 2021 – but remain two years away from climbing  back to the record job totals the state reached in early 2020” according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast just out. Also, the report cast doubt…Read More→

On the one hand you have Salesforce just announcing it was putting 225,000 sf of San Francisco office space on the sublease market (on top of the 8+ million square feet already on that market) as well as cancelling a 325,000 sf office lease near its Salesforce Tower that had yet to be built. Bad…Read More→

There have been a number of major tech and finance companies over the past nine months who have announced long-term stay-at-home policies, prompting thousands of employees to uproot their families, relocate to a much less expensive region, purchase a new home, and begin to enjoy life with less financial stress. Many companies have had detailed…Read More→

Retail deals are happening in a number of regions. Restaurants might be getting extensive up-front free rent from the landlords to get them through the pandemic months, and in turn landlords may be going to their lenders to try to get loan restructures commensurate with these concessions. I’ve seen national retail reports stating both that…Read More→

According to a recent article from Walker & Dunlop published in Bisnow, “From beer kegs to nap rooms to cold-plunge pools, the 2010s saw a parade of trendy office “perks”. For the companies that called the offices home, these add-ons were meant to bolster a bespoke brand of company culture, whether relaxed, luxurious or hyper-productive….Read More→

Colliers just sent out a brief report on the current state of the national retail market. The good news is Q4 showed signs of recovery, with positive absorption and retail rent collections up to 86%, a huge uptick since the heart of the pandemic. The bad news, 27.6 million square feet of negative absorption in…Read More→

Here in the San Francisco Bay Area a number of tech companies have recently announced that large portions or in some cases, all of their office facilities are on the sublease market. Work-from-home is here to stay for many reasons and this does not bode well for the overall health of the office market. However,…Read More→

Salesforce, the largest employer in San Francisco with over 2,000,000 square feet of office space, just announced that 65% of its employees can come into the office one to three days a week, and for employees that don’t live near an office or have roles that don’t require an office, can work remotely full-time. “The…Read More→

  The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors sent out a great short video that you can access at www.SIOR.com/snapshot. Here are the highlights: Industrial real estate confidence is high at 6.9 (out of 10), while office confidence is low at 4.7. “The pandemic continues to negatively affect almost all market sectors…and is expected to…Read More→

According to a recent report by CBRE, Silicon Valley will be one of the hottest markets, nationwide, for future office development. “The San Jose metro area, defined as Santa Clara County, is touted as the No. 1 market for future development of office space and is also seen as an excellent market for retail and…Read More→

I’ve been reading report after report documenting and predicting the dire budget strife due to the impact of the Pandemic on business closures, tax revenues severely decreased, and costs relating to vaccination, testing, school readiness during the Pandemic and other costly issues which have stressed government entities across the U.S. San Francisco, 400 million shortfall,…Read More→

AtlantaRetail just reported in Bisnow that the 560,000 square foot Town Center at Cobb mall was foreclosed by Deutsche Bank Feb. 2, 2021, receiving no bids at the foreclosure auction. The mall was valued at $322 million in 2012, but dropped to only $120 million at time of foreclosure. The Cobb Country Commissioner, JoAnn Birrell…Read More→

Diana Olick wrote an article Feb. 4, 2021 citing the affordable housing stock now 96-99% occupied, while in some communities many hotels are sitting empty due to the pandemic, with 18% behind on their mortgages as of December 2020 as compared with only 2% the prior year. Developers are taking advantage of this, purchasing distressed…Read More→

In 2020 Austin, Texas saw a 5.8% year-over-year job growth, Boise Idaho enjoyed a 2.9% growth, Dallas 2.8%; Seattle 2.35; Denver 1.7% and Nashville 1.2%, which on the other side of this equation San Francisco and San Jose each lost 2.6% of their jobs in the finance, information and professional services catagories…I’ve heard stories of…Read More→

  Even though in many regions in the United States there is a flood of office sublease space and there are reports that Corporate America may be giving up 25% of all their office space, long-term, due to partial or total remote working, there are still tens of millions of feet of new office projects…Read More→

Yelp just placed 14 stories at 140 new Montgomery St., San Francisco, totally 161,876 square feet, and plans to retain a HQ in San Francisco. “With more employees working remotely we’re reducing some of our footprint in San Francisco, but we will still maintain our HQ office there,” the Yelp spokesperson said, adding that the…Read More→

According to the East Bay Times reporter George Avalos, California lost 1.41 million jobs last year. Ouch! Michael Bernick, employment attorney with Duane Morris and former EDD Director, said “We are looking at a much more gradual recovery than first hoped, and a lot of jobs that were lost are going to be lost permanently,…Read More→

David Amsterdam, President of Colliers Capital Markets, just sent out a bulletin with the following bullet points: Q4 negative absorption of 40.9 million sf is second-highest on record…ten metros posted negative absorption of at least one million (New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago)…Sublease space now a record 188 million sf. I have been doing…Read More→

But the real story is a number of reports predicting that Corporate America will be downsizing by 25% of its total office space. This means we may have 1,561,273,198 square feet of vacant office space as companies trend towards partial or total long-term work-from-home strategies, which means we have another 773 million square feet of…Read More→

Last week Oracle placed three of their Peninsula office buildings on the for-sale market, after announcing a few weeks ago they were moving their headquarters to Texas. Now NetApp just announced they will sell their 702,200 square foot Sunnyvale office campus. They have not announced leaving California…yet.  I started researching all the links to states…Read More→

At a recent webinar where I forecast what was going to happen in the various commercial real estate segments over the next few years we had several surveys. One was asking our audience, which included CPA’s, bankers, realtors and lawyers, when they thought the office market was going to return, and the overwhelming consensus was…Read More→

  It is bad enough that San Francisco Bay Area corporations are putting leased space on the sublease market, packing up and moving part of their operations to Texas or elsewhere, but when major companies begin putting their office campuses on the ‘for sale’ market this is a much more serious sign of what might…Read More→