The SF Business Times 12/8/23 summarized the numerous bargain office building sales over the past few months. Presidio Bay Ventures bought 160 Spear St for $260/sf, SKS Partners and Swig bought 350 California for $215/sf, Ridge Capital paid $255/sf for 180 Howard St., and Strada may be buying 201 Sper St. for under $300/rsf….Read More→

  Almost all of the predictiions I have made over the past 43 years which have been published in one of my 249 newsletters have come true, and since they are all in print you can check me out! Here is my current prediction.  The commercial real estate market in the United States, especially in…Read More→

  There appears to have been multiple offers on 115 Sansome St. in San Francisco, a 125,000 square foot 14-story office building that in 2016 sold for $83 million. Now the price was $25 million, and the seller received dozens of offers. This compares to another deep-discounted office building that didn’t generate the same multitude…Read More→

Walmart is subleasing 719,000 of office space in a four-building complex at Crossman Drive at Caribbean Drive in Sunnyvale, and OpenAi will be leasing 40,000 sf t 1455 and 1515 Third Street in San Francisco. Hooray!!

I have recently interviewed a number of office building experts and for suburban Class A office buildings in the Walnut Creek/Concord, Northern California region the cost to build a brand-new Class A office building is $500-700/square foot. This price includes land, architectural, permits, construction of the base building, parking structure, all the soft costs like…Read More→

  There is simply no way to sugar-coat what is happening in most parts of the United States in regard to office space and the office market. In just the past few days, Block announced it will cut 1,000 jobs, Microsoft placed 130,000 square feet of its 355 Market Street, San Francisco space on the…Read More→

89% defaulted ($672 million) and 11.1% ($83.7 million) were paid off during September 2023. None were extended or modified, according to Moody’s Analytics.  A new company, Arthroto, has a plan to make conversion of office to residential easier and cheaper by using factory-manufactured components that can be assembled floor by floor without disrupting other floor…Read More→

Contrary to reports of corporate executives mandating or begging or offering incentives for employees to return to the office, many will and many won’t. Either way we have far too much office space than is needed, even if more folks come into the office three days a week. As a case in point, last week…Read More→

A recent 2023 U.S. CEO Outlook survey by corporate-services firm KPMG poll showed that CEO confidence in having their employees return to the office almost doubled over the past year,, and while 45% believed that workers would continue in hybrid positions last year, in 2023 only 34% believe this. Last year 20% of CEOs thought corporate…Read More→

The SF Business Times  Oct. 2, 203 reported on a recent survey of 2,000 full0time employees by Owl Labs, The Hybrid Work Survey, which found “…69% of employees believe their company is requiring in-office work due simply to traditional work expectations. That disconnect is one of many factors that have limited enthusiasm for returning to…Read More→

Major brokerage companies report San Francisco office vacancy now almost 34%. And including s[ace for space that isn’t vacant over 37%. AI is the big new wonder leasing office space in the City, but for every new AI lease another existing tenant is downsizing. As of this week  national office occupancy is up just a…Read More→

  The Bay Area News Group reported that 26% of residents work remotely, down from 36% in 2021. However, ‘despite the drop-off, there were still more than four times as many people working from home in 2022 as in ears leading up the pandemic, when just 6% of workers were mostly remote.’ Public transit ridership…Read More→

Austell Place, a 170,000 sf 100-year-old office building and was renovated in 2019 will now have 1,000 migrants living in the building. It had previously been converted from a 100-year old warehouse to a modern office building. It has floor-to-ceiling windows. I tried to find details of how this office-to-residential conversion will work but at…Read More→

“Back in April, Dropbox announced it was cutting 500 employees. In May, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas let go of almost 4,000 people. And in July, the founder of an e-commerce startup said he laid off 90% of his support team. The common reason cited? You guessed it: artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs economists have estimated that 300 million full-time…Read More→

Bisnow 8/23/23 Goldman Sachs is cracking down on making sure everyone comes back to the office full-time “though revenue-producing employees have for the most part returned full time, the publication reports that senior managers are frustrated by the reluctance of other staff, “constituting a significant chunk of its workforce,” to come back.   Google is…Read More→

  I was recently asked by a business reporter if, with suburban Class A office buildings like 2300 Clayton in Concord, California selling for as low as $110 a square foot, are we at the bottom of the cycle? This particular office building is one of my favorite, and back in 1985 I brought the…Read More→

The San Francisco Business Times August 29, 2023 reported that the latest Survey of Business Uncertainty (what a name!) from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, University of Chicago and Stanford University, which surveys 500 business executives each month, ‘Executives predicted that about 72.6% of their employees would be working full-time onsite in 2028, down slightly…Read More→

According to an article just published August 17, 2023 n Bisnow, “…conversions had been largely characterized as a drop in the empty-office bucket. It may seem like an extreme step, but as expectations for full Class-B and C offices crumble and renovation costs climb, demolishing buildings to free up the land under them for a…Read More→

There was a recent announcement of the largest office deal done in the past 12 months in the Oakland area. Delta Dental leased the third floor of 1333 Broadway (where 40 years ago I had my offices at Grubb & Ellis), and while it was great that this ‘largest’ deal was done, the size of…Read More→

According to the SF Business Times, ’San Francisco Sees Significant Jump in Return-To-Office Study’, with a 38% year-over-year increase in visits to office buildings in San Francisco. San Francisco foot traffic downtown remains down 56% from 2019. Ok, that was the good news.  On August 13, 2023   the U. S. Department of Health and Human…Read More→

  On average, wrote Jerry Nickelsburg, an adjunct professor of economics at UCLA who helped run the survey, participants in both Northern and Southern California “expect both rental rates and occupancy rates to weaken in the coming year” and do not expect the sector to make a full recovery by 2026. San Francisco Business Times August…Read More→

  The San Francisco Business Times August 7, 2023 referred to a recent CoStar analysis that found 55% of office leases signed before the pandemic have yet to expire, which could spell a lot more office vacancy grief as corporations downsize on renewal or relocate to smaller spaces. ‘”All of the pain we’ve been seeing…Read More→

  Today Google reduced the amount of funds budgeted for closing offices which might be a sign that perhaps the layoffs and worker reductions were coming to an end.  They spent $69 million in cutting space this last quarter, down from$565 million it spent the first quarter of 2023.  There was also a report out…Read More→

Lender Sues to Foreclose on WeWork’s San Francisco Tower ($240 mil loan on a 359,000 sf 20-story Class A office building): Blackstone Reports Income from eal Estate Sales Down 96% in Q2; Commercial Property Distress Hits $71B in Q2, Led By Office; Marketing Of Distressed Loop Building (1.4M sf in Chicago) Will Test Waters For…Read More→

Credits to Stephen Newbold, National Director of Office Research for Colliers. The national vacancy rate just went up to 16.4%, which is a record high. The suburban rate is 16.0% and CBD rate is 17.3%. There are 88 million square feet of new office buildings under construction, with 12 mil in New York City, 8.1…Read More→

Clara O’Brien, writing in Modern Farmer July 11, 2023 wrote a thought-provoking article about using vacant office space to grow fruits and vegetables. “In Calgary, Alberta (Canada) AgriPlay Ventures transformed part of underutilized office space in Calgary Tower Center into one of Canada’s largest indoor urban farms earlier this year…Currently, AgriPlay Farms is negotiating offers…Read More→

ResumeBuillder surveyed 1,500 full-time corporate workers in June, 2023 and found that: 85% of workers go to the office at least once a week 63% said going to the office improves productivity, top reason being more efficient teamwork 13% said productivity goes down in the office, and 25% of these say it’s a result of…Read More→

Several of my friends and associates sent me the press release on July 6, 2023 about Apple purchasing a 161,000 square foot office building in Cupertino for $435/rsf. This is very positive news! Their ‘spaceship’ Apple Park in Cupertino can house 12,000 employees. Back in August, 2022 there was a corporate mandate that employees had…Read More→

I remember back when we had the savings & loan crisis. Back in the 1980’s between 30-50% of the nation’s savings & loans went out of business. Here in the East Bay around 25% of all our Class A office buildings went into foreclosure. I remember several instances where an investor purchased an office building…Read More→

There have been reports of office building owners paying down their building mortgages so their lender would give them a loan extension. There were several examples in a recent Bisnow article, all with loans that were sent to special servicers which usually means the loan is in default. In the examples mentioned it appears the…Read More→

  We reported recently that the 312,000 square foot anchor tenant, Nordstrom’s, was shutting down after 35 years, and if you have ever walked on Market Street where the center is located you would experience the huge homeless and drug problems that scare shoppers away. Office occupancy in San Francisco is the lowest in the…Read More→

I’ve been making predictions of the office market in my newsletter, now in its 43rd year of publication. My predictions have almost always come true, and these can be substantiated through my published back issues. There will be several varying factors that will be part of how our office space market stabilizes, and unfortunately with…Read More→

  Bisnow May 23, 2023 headlined a scary article” ‘Persistent’ Remote Work Could Slash Office Values By 44%” and cites a recent study by New York University and Columbia University. “In an update released this month, the authors now project an average value drop of 43.9% from 2019 to 2029. In just a three-year period…Read More→

Tidewater Capital just received approval for a 420,000 sf Oakland CA office tower, so Hope Springs eternal with office developers despite the current and near-term market. At least one regional bank is requiring employees back to the office. AT&T is mandating managers return to the office, and Blackrock is requiring four-days a week in the…Read More→

Artificial intelligence may allow companies to dramatically reduce their workforce. Bisnow May 8, 2023, “IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told Bloomberg that back-office functions like HR would be paused in many cases because the roles can be undertaken by AI. He said the company employed about 26,000 people in noncustomer-facing roles, and about a third of…Read More→

The latest Colliers national office report shows sublease space at a record high, negative net absorption, and overall office vacancy in the United States now at 6.1%. “The gap between asking and effective rents remains significant. Tenant improvement allowances of $100 per square foot or more, accompanied by up to 10 to 18 months of…Read More→

Artificial intelligence in camera-based security may be dramatically changing crime deterrence.  Surveillance cameras are not just motion-detectors but with integrated AI algorithms they can detect intruders and appropriately set off lights, voice warnings, shrieking sirens, and trigger immediate reporting to guards or managers and allowing engagement directly with the intruder over the camera and speakers….Read More→

FacilityExecutive Magazine April 2023 had a sobering prescription for corporate real estate executives faced with excess office space, employees not expected to return to the office, a looming recession and in general no expectations that the vacant space will be occupied anytime soon. “To begin with everything must be on the table: Restack office space,…Read More→

Lyft recently mandated that all employees must work in the office Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, with Tuesdays recommended. They will also be allowed to work remotely one month each year, and those living too far from offices are not required to come in. Many call centers have remote workers, and some have begun to make…Read More→

  According to a recent study by The Instant Group and The Urban Land Institute,  82% of office landlords expect a slight to significant reduction in space utilization over the next five years. Bisnow April 24, 2023 “he survey also found a disconnect between landlords and tenants when it comes to office amenities. Landlords said…Read More→

Bisnow April 17, 2023 reported that while March 2022 President Biden said ‘in his State of the Union address that the vast majority of federal workers would soon return to the office…that didn’t happen last year, and the process has not always gone smoothly.” There have been federal agencies who mandated that all employees return…Read More→

It is hard to believe that during the past twelve months at one point the price of a share of First Republic Bank stock was $171!  Today it is $13/share!  Before the pandemic San Francisco office buildings were selling for $800-1,200/rsf and considered among the best investments in the world. From the SF Business Times…Read More→

The Colliers U.S. Capital Markets report just out stated that in 2021 there were 10.9 billion in distressed commercial real estate sales, decreasing to $7.9 billion in 2022, and ‘Since 2016, distress has accounted for 1.4% of volume on average. Distress peaked in 2010 at 18.7% of volume. Absolute distress sales peaked in 2011 at…Read More→

Nicole Goodkind of CNN wrote in an article headlined “Commercial real Estate Is In trouble. Why you should be paying attention”, that office and retail property valuations have been falling sine the pandemic brought about lower occupancy rates and changes where people work and how they shop. The Fed’s efforts to fight inflation by raising…Read More→

Laura Waxman, reporter for the SF Business Times, wrote yesterday that investors who purchased office buildings prior to 2020 paid top dollar. I remember prices of $800-1000 per square foot or more announced back in the good old days before the pandemic hit. “Companies paid top dollar for amenity-rich workplaces designed to keep employees both…Read More→