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46

San Francisco Tech Companies Have Dumped 8 Million Feet of Office Space!

Apr 26, 2024

The Standard, April 24, 2024: “By the end of 2019, the 20 biggest tech employers had leased more than 16 million square feet of space, nearly a quarter of the city’s total office stock. Now, those same companies are holding onto only 8.3 million square feet, according to data from real estate firm CBRE. “We’ve just…Read More→

47

Interesting Ideas on Getting Employees Back to the Office

Apr 19, 2024

Christopher Aquilina, SIOR with tenant rep firm Spring 4 n the United Kingdom, , said “Tenants are increasingly understanding that if they want to woo their staff back from WFH (work from home), they need to offer best-in-class office space in a convenient location.” He goes on to say  “Developers need to be part of…Read More→

48

Companies Can Rent Office Space for the 2-3 Days Employees Are Actually There

Apr 16, 2024

  HubbleHQ has more than 1,000 offices in 250 buildings in London where companies can just pay and use the office space two or three days a week if their employees aren’t coming in more than that.  There are lockers for the employees to secure their belongings on the days they aren’t there,  and even…Read More→

49

The European Office Market Is Much More Healthy Than the United States Market

Apr 12, 2024

The european office market, with a current vacancy rate of around 8.7%, appears healthier than our U.S. rate of 20%. There are varying reports of what the occupancy levels are, with one report stating that 70-90% of European office workers are back in the office, while another report had this sfigure closer to 57%, getting…Read More→

50

Over 1.2 billion Square Feet of Office Space Now Available in the U.S.!

Apr 10, 2024

This may be a new record for the most office space, both direct as well as for sublease, in the United States, according to Avison Young. This is 23.7% of the office inventory in the country. Some positive trends that may improve office Landlord’s assets in this Bisnow April 8, 2024 article, “Swaths of layoffs…Read More→

51

Amazon Slashing Jobs, Major Oakland Office Defaults, and $1.2 Billion Purchase of Vacaville Genetec/Roche facility

Mar 29, 2024

Amazon Slashing office space, will save $1.3 Billion in Costs. Will let leases expire and negotiate early lease terminations.  Starwood Capital paid almost $500 million in 2019 for three Downtown Oakland office buildings, and after just defaulting on a 364.5-million-dollar loan has given up ownership of 2100 Franklin, 2101 Webster and 1901 Harrison. San Francisco’s…Read More→

52

Back To The Office?

Mar 21, 2024

I have been predicting for some time that office occupancy will go up over the next few years-in my opinion from the roughly 50% where we are now to perhaps 70% once all the corporate mandates become effective. However, we will not get anywhere close to the pre-Covid levels as there has been a transformational…Read More→

53

Texas Comes In First…Houston, Dallas and Austin Are The First, Second and Third Most Vacant Office Markets In The U.S.!

Mar 4, 2024

“The self-proclaimed leader of the return-to-work movement is now staring down some of the emptiest office buildings in the country. Houston, Dallas and Austin are the first-, second- and third-most-vacant office markets among the nation’s largest 50 metros, according to Moody’s Analytics.”, according to Bisnow 2/29/24. I still think San Francisco has a higher vacancy, but…Read More→

54

A Return To A Different Kind of Office

Feb 28, 2024

In Bisnow February 25, 2024, ”Paul Darrah, who is the chief workplace office for Citadel which has $92.46 billion under management, said he believes that the rest of the corporate world will eventually succeed in getting employees to show up. Citadel is leaning into in-office work as the hedge fund posts double-digit returns. It is planning billion-dollar office towers in Miami and…Read More→

55

Nearly A Trillion Dollars of Commercial Property Loans Coming Due In 2024

Feb 14, 2024

According to Mortgage Bankers Association, it is 929 billion but close enough to the Big T…there were loan extensions from last year that increased this. According to Bisnow Feb. 13, 2024, “Prices on commercial properties have fallen 21% from an early 2022 peak. Office prices have dropped most precipitously, sinking 35%.”  This will make refinancing challenging in…Read More→

56

The Avalanche of Deep-Discounted Office Building Sales About to Hit the Market

Jan 29, 2024

  “Office buildings across the country are starting to trade at significant markdowns, in many cases selling for less than the value of their loan. Those types of transactions, executed in concert with the buildings’ lenders, are known as short sales. Economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research estimate that about 44% of all office properties are underwater on…Read More→

57

Know When To Hold Them, Know When To Fold Them

Jan 22, 2024

Blackstone, the world’s largest owner of commercial real estate, owned 1740 Broadway, New York, an office building that was appraised in 2015 at $605 million, with a $308 million-dollar CMBS loan and the loan is now on the market for $150 million. As reported in Bisnow January 17, 2024, “Blackstone’s handling of 1740 Broadway is one of several…Read More→

58

I keep Looking For Positive Office Building Industry News But…

Jan 19, 2024

San Francisco Business Times January 19, 2024 Various headlines from just this one issue: First page, ‘The Coming Debt Wave’, Page 6, ‘Another S.F. Property Could Be Headed for Default’  about 140 Second St. in SF, ‘S.F. Trophy Onwers Buy Some Time’ regarding the 1.6 million square foot One Market which had gone into special…Read More→

59

U.S. Office Vacancy Breaks All-Time Record

Jan 9, 2024

This was the headline from the January 8, 2024 BisNow newsletter. “Roughly 19.6% of office space in major American metropolitan areas was vacant at the end of the year, according to new data from Moody’s Analytics. That is up from 18.8% at the end of 2022 and higher than the previous record of 19.3% reached in 1986 and 1991.” Texas…Read More→

60

The 348,000 sf Class A 1320/1390 Willow Pass Road, Concord, California Office Building Sale at $58/rsf May Affect Values for Years to Come

Jan 2, 2024

  I’ve been speaking with commercial real estate appraisers about this recent sale and the impact it will have on future office building financings, refinances and sales. This is an official comp that will be hard to ignore, and will make it mch harder to prove to a buyer or lender that your similar Class…Read More→

61

44% of U.S. Office Loans Underwater

Dec 20, 2023

  Bisnow 12/19/23 reported that according to data from the National Bureau f Economic Research, 44% of bank loans are on property values that are less than the outstanding loan balances. This means that even if the lender is willing to refinance, which most these days aren’t, they will require the borrower to pay down…Read More→

62

San Francisco’s Office Building Market Heading In Two Directions

Dec 18, 2023

  The SF Business Times 12/8/23 summarized the numerous bargain office building sales over the past few months. Presidio Bay Ventures bought 160 Spear St for $260/sf, SKS Partners and Swig bought 350 California for $215/sf, Ridge Capital paid $255/sf for 180 Howard St., and Strada may be buying 201 Sper St. for under $300/rsf….Read More→

63

How To Tell When Commercial Real Estate Crisis Is Over

Nov 28, 2023

  Almost all of the predictiions I have made over the past 43 years which have been published in one of my 249 newsletters have come true, and since they are all in print you can check me out! Here is my current prediction.  The commercial real estate market in the United States, especially in…Read More→

64

The Headlines of the November 3m 2023 SF Business Times read ‘S.F. Offices Are Suddenly Hot’

Nov 14, 2023

  There appears to have been multiple offers on 115 Sansome St. in San Francisco, a 125,000 square foot 14-story office building that in 2016 sold for $83 million. Now the price was $25 million, and the seller received dozens of offers. This compares to another deep-discounted office building that didn’t generate the same multitude…Read More→

65

A Few Very Positive Bay Area Office Announcements!!

Nov 11, 2023

Walmart is subleasing 719,000 of office space in a four-building complex at Crossman Drive at Caribbean Drive in Sunnyvale, and OpenAi will be leasing 40,000 sf t 1455 and 1515 Third Street in San Francisco. Hooray!!

66

The Cost To Build A New Suburban Class A Office Building And Why Prices Are So Low

Nov 10, 2023

I have recently interviewed a number of office building experts and for suburban Class A office buildings in the Walnut Creek/Concord, Northern California region the cost to build a brand-new Class A office building is $500-700/square foot. This price includes land, architectural, permits, construction of the base building, parking structure, all the soft costs like…Read More→

67

The Office Downturn Still Heading Down

Nov 8, 2023

  There is simply no way to sugar-coat what is happening in most parts of the United States in regard to office space and the office market. In just the past few days, Block announced it will cut 1,000 jobs, Microsoft placed 130,000 square feet of its 355 Market Street, San Francisco space on the…Read More→

68

90% Of Maturing CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities) Of Office Properties Defaulted At Their Maturity In September

Oct 30, 2023

89% defaulted ($672 million) and 11.1% ($83.7 million) were paid off during September 2023. None were extended or modified, according to Moody’s Analytics.  A new company, Arthroto, has a plan to make conversion of office to residential easier and cheaper by using factory-manufactured components that can be assembled floor by floor without disrupting other floor…Read More→

69

The Signs Keep Pointing To Long-Term Reduction In Office Space Needs

Oct 24, 2023

Contrary to reports of corporate executives mandating or begging or offering incentives for employees to return to the office, many will and many won’t. Either way we have far too much office space than is needed, even if more folks come into the office three days a week. As a case in point, last week…Read More→

70

CEO’s Confident Workers Will Return To The Office

Oct 16, 2023

A recent 2023 U.S. CEO Outlook survey by corporate-services firm KPMG poll showed that CEO confidence in having their employees return to the office almost doubled over the past year,, and while 45% believed that workers would continue in hybrid positions last year, in 2023 only 34% believe this. Last year 20% of CEOs thought corporate…Read More→

71

What Employees Want In Order To Return To The Office

Oct 2, 2023

The SF Business Times  Oct. 2, 203 reported on a recent survey of 2,000 full0time employees by Owl Labs, The Hybrid Work Survey, which found “…69% of employees believe their company is requiring in-office work due simply to traditional work expectations. That disconnect is one of many factors that have limited enthusiasm for returning to…Read More→

72

SF Business Times Reported an uptick in San Francisco office tours

Sep 27, 2023

Major brokerage companies report San Francisco office vacancy now almost 34%. And including s[ace for space that isn’t vacant over 37%. AI is the big new wonder leasing office space in the City, but for every new AI lease another existing tenant is downsizing. As of this week  national office occupancy is up just a…Read More→

73

More Bay Area Office Workers Returning To The Office

Sep 18, 2023

  The Bay Area News Group reported that 26% of residents work remotely, down from 36% in 2021. However, ‘despite the drop-off, there were still more than four times as many people working from home in 2022 as in ears leading up the pandemic, when just 6% of workers were mostly remote.’ Public transit ridership…Read More→

74

Renovated, but Vacant New York Office Building Will House 1,000 Migrants

Sep 8, 2023

Austell Place, a 170,000 sf 100-year-old office building and was renovated in 2019 will now have 1,000 migrants living in the building. It had previously been converted from a 100-year old warehouse to a modern office building. It has floor-to-ceiling windows. I tried to find details of how this office-to-residential conversion will work but at…Read More→

75

Artificial Intelligence Will Make Many Of Our Lives Better, and Lead to Unemployment For Others

Sep 5, 2023

“Back in April, Dropbox announced it was cutting 500 employees. In May, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas let go of almost 4,000 people. And in July, the founder of an e-commerce startup said he laid off 90% of his support team. The common reason cited? You guessed it: artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs economists have estimated that 300 million full-time…Read More→

76

The Return-To-Office Transition Is All Over The Board

Aug 31, 2023

Bisnow 8/23/23 Goldman Sachs is cracking down on making sure everyone comes back to the office full-time “though revenue-producing employees have for the most part returned full time, the publication reports that senior managers are frustrated by the reluctance of other staff, “constituting a significant chunk of its workforce,” to come back.   Google is…Read More→

77

We Are At Or Near The Office Market Bottom But Will Bounce Along On The Bottom For Several More Years

Aug 30, 2023

  I was recently asked by a business reporter if, with suburban Class A office buildings like 2300 Clayton in Concord, California selling for as low as $110 a square foot, are we at the bottom of the cycle? This particular office building is one of my favorite, and back in 1985 I brought the…Read More→

78

Major CEO’s Want Workers Back In The Office, But Remote Work Is Still Expected To Increase

Aug 29, 2023

The San Francisco Business Times August 29, 2023 reported that the latest Survey of Business Uncertainty (what a name!) from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, University of Chicago and Stanford University, which surveys 500 business executives each month, ‘Executives predicted that about 72.6% of their employees would be working full-time onsite in 2028, down slightly…Read More→

79

Office Conversions Will Probably Not Save Office Buildings From Demolition

Aug 18, 2023

According to an article just published August 17, 2023 n Bisnow, “…conversions had been largely characterized as a drop in the empty-office bucket. It may seem like an extreme step, but as expectations for full Class-B and C offices crumble and renovation costs climb, demolishing buildings to free up the land under them for a…Read More→

80

A Chilling Bit Of Good News

Aug 17, 2023

There was a recent announcement of the largest office deal done in the past 12 months in the Oakland area. Delta Dental leased the third floor of 1333 Broadway (where 40 years ago I had my offices at Grubb & Ellis), and while it was great that this ‘largest’ deal was done, the size of…Read More→

81

San Francisco Office Update, Good and Not So Good

Aug 14, 2023

According to the SF Business Times, ’San Francisco Sees Significant Jump in Return-To-Office Study’, with a 38% year-over-year increase in visits to office buildings in San Francisco. San Francisco foot traffic downtown remains down 56% from 2019. Ok, that was the good news.  On August 13, 2023   the U. S. Department of Health and Human…Read More→

82

Office Building Full Recovery By 2026?

Aug 9, 2023

  On average, wrote Jerry Nickelsburg, an adjunct professor of economics at UCLA who helped run the survey, participants in both Northern and Southern California “expect both rental rates and occupancy rates to weaken in the coming year” and do not expect the sector to make a full recovery by 2026. San Francisco Business Times August…Read More→

83

More Sobering Office Market News

Aug 8, 2023

  The San Francisco Business Times August 7, 2023 referred to a recent CoStar analysis that found 55% of office leases signed before the pandemic have yet to expire, which could spell a lot more office vacancy grief as corporations downsize on renewal or relocate to smaller spaces. ‘”All of the pain we’ve been seeing…Read More→

84

Several Positive Signs About The Office Market, But…

Jul 27, 2023

  Today Google reduced the amount of funds budgeted for closing offices which might be a sign that perhaps the layoffs and worker reductions were coming to an end.  They spent $69 million in cutting space this last quarter, down from$565 million it spent the first quarter of 2023.  There was also a report out…Read More→

85

Headlines From Just One Bisnow News Release

Jul 21, 2023

Lender Sues to Foreclose on WeWork’s San Francisco Tower ($240 mil loan on a 359,000 sf 20-story Class A office building): Blackstone Reports Income from eal Estate Sales Down 96% in Q2; Commercial Property Distress Hits $71B in Q2, Led By Office; Marketing Of Distressed Loop Building (1.4M sf in Chicago) Will Test Waters For…Read More→

86

National Office Statistics Update

Jul 20, 2023

Credits to Stephen Newbold, National Director of Office Research for Colliers. The national vacancy rate just went up to 16.4%, which is a record high. The suburban rate is 16.0% and CBD rate is 17.3%. There are 88 million square feet of new office buildings under construction, with 12 mil in New York City, 8.1…Read More→

87

Empty Office Buildings Are Being Turned Into Vertical Farms

Jul 13, 2023

Clara O’Brien, writing in Modern Farmer July 11, 2023 wrote a thought-provoking article about using vacant office space to grow fruits and vegetables. “In Calgary, Alberta (Canada) AgriPlay Ventures transformed part of underutilized office space in Calgary Tower Center into one of Canada’s largest indoor urban farms earlier this year…Currently, AgriPlay Farms is negotiating offers…Read More→

88

Key Findings From ResumeBuilder Survey

Jul 7, 2023

ResumeBuillder surveyed 1,500 full-time corporate workers in June, 2023 and found that: 85% of workers go to the office at least once a week 63% said going to the office improves productivity, top reason being more efficient teamwork 13% said productivity goes down in the office, and 25% of these say it’s a result of…Read More→

89

Apple Purchases Another Cupertino Office Building!

Jul 5, 2023

Several of my friends and associates sent me the press release on July 6, 2023 about Apple purchasing a 161,000 square foot office building in Cupertino for $435/rsf. This is very positive news! Their ‘spaceship’ Apple Park in Cupertino can house 12,000 employees. Back in August, 2022 there was a corporate mandate that employees had…Read More→

90

How Will We Know When We Are At The Bottom of the Office Market?

Jul 3, 2023

I remember back when we had the savings & loan crisis. Back in the 1980’s between 30-50% of the nation’s savings & loans went out of business. Here in the East Bay around 25% of all our Class A office buildings went into foreclosure. I remember several instances where an investor purchased an office building…Read More→

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Jeffrey Weil, CCIM, MCR.h, SIOR

Executive Vice President
San Francisco Bay Area
1850 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200
Walnut Creek, Ca 94507
CA Lic. 00786195
Phone: +1 925 279 5590
License #: CA-00786195
Email: jeff.weil@colliers.com

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  • Jeffrey Weil
  • Colliers International
  • 1850 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200
  • +1 (925) 279 5590
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Contact Information

  • Jeffrey Weil
  • Colliers International
  • 1850 Mount Diablo Blvd., suite 200
  • CA Lic. 00786195
  • +1 (925) 279 5590
  • jeff.weil@colliers.com
  • www.officetimes.com

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