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1

Are We at the Bottom Yet?

May 14, 2025

Just this week’s headlines….Machine Investment Group Acquires Distressed San Jose Luxury Condominium Development; Lener Takes Back 541-Room Signia by Hilton in San Jose Deal; Peninsula Land & Capital Buys 210,000 SQFT Class A Office Property in Walnut Creek for $22.5MM ($107/rsf, versus the $66 million-$314/sf)  the former owners paid for the property in 2017).  So…Read More→

2

Two Major San Francisco Office Deals Show Snapshot of Market, and Another Major Oakland Apartment House Goes Back to Lender

May 2, 2025

  45 Fremont Street, San Francisco, a 620,000 square foot Class A office property owned by Shorenstein and Blackstone, goes back to market at direction of  lender Bank of America. With a loan value of $347 million this puts the debt at $560/SF, which pre-covid would make sense but in today’s office sale market with…Read More→

3

A Tale of Two Class-A Office Markets Within the Same City

Apr 30, 2025

  On the one hand we have the recent announcement that the 260,000 SF Pacific Plaza office building at 1340 Treat Blvd. in Walnut Creek, directly across the street from the Pleasant Hill Bart Station, Class A and mostly leased to credit tenants, but plans now underway to replace it with 400 housing units. On…Read More→

4

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate (FIRE) Dominate Preleasing

Apr 15, 2025

As reported in the Colliers U.S. Leading Office Markets Q1 2025 report, “Across the 14 gateway regions, 52.8% of the total construction pipeline is preleased. Of the 10.4  MSF of preleasing in active construction buildings (for leases over 50,000 SF in size), FIRE tenants committed to 61.2% of new space. Wells Fargo has preleased 1.2…Read More→

5

Recent Article That the Office Market May Be Rebounding!

Apr 14, 2025

  In an article written by Joe Gose and published in the New York Times 4/14/25, sales of office buildings across the country are up 21% from 2023. CBRE reported that in 2024, 6.5 million ore square feet of office space was leased than was vacated. In major higher-cost cities the average asking rate of…Read More→

6

Huge Office Availability on the Bay Area Market

Apr 10, 2025

There was an announcement in TheRegistry that Google is putting over 1,000,000 square feet of office space on the market at Pacific Shores, Redwood City.  Yesterday there was a press release that Workday in Pleasanton was putting a 209,000 square foot office building on the market, vacant. A week ago I toured a Concord office…Read More→

7

Reducing the Threat of Cyberattacks To Office Buildings

Apr 4, 2025

As various building systems get more and more connected for office building operations there are increased risks of getting hacked, held for ransome or having systems disabled for various nepharious reasons. Buildings Magazone First Quarter 2025 had an aecellent article on how to reduce these risks. Here are the five steps to consider: Collaberate with…Read More→

8

Very Positive Office News for San Francisco!

Mar 25, 2025

Two positive news releases just out regarding the San Francisco office market…the Transamerica Pyramid, which has gone through the first phase of a $250 million dollar renovation, just signed a 123,000 square foot long-term lease with the law firm Morgan Lewis & Bockus LLP.  This landmark office building is asking $300 per annual square foot…Read More→

9

AI May Forever Impact the Need for Office Space

Mar 24, 2025

There are a number of major factors that might prevent to return of a healthy office market. The pandemic showed corporations that they can be extremely profitable even with many of their employees working from home, and even though many companies now have RTO mandates ‘the toothpaste once out of the tube can be hard…Read More→

10

Major Commercial Investments Still Crashing

Mar 21, 2025

Globest.com reported that the 3,165-unit apartment complex in San Francisco, Parkmerced, is in default after the owner, Maximus Real Estate Partners defaulted on a $1.5 billion dollar loan backed by the complex.  There have also been articles like one in the March 20, 2025 Business Times “Paramount wrote the value of its investment in the…Read More→

11

Positive Office News For San Francisco!

Mar 3, 2025

According to the San Francisco Business Tims February 28, 2025, “A majority of San Francisco business leaders said their companies have plans to expand their offices in the city as they both push for more in-person work and grow headcount, according to a survey by KPMG. Three-quarters of the 100 San Francisco-based executives surveyed by…Read More→

12

Three Factors Prevent Me from Declaring We Are At Office Market Bottom

Feb 26, 2025

I have been writing and publishing the OfficeTimes Corporate Office Perspective for the past 45 years, and during this time I have made many industry predictions. Almost every one of them has come true, and this is documented if you want to check. It almost feels like we are at the office building bottom, but…Read More→

13

East Bay Class A Office Meltdown?

Feb 13, 2025

San Francisco and Oakland have been experiencing fire-sale pricing of office buildings over the past few years, with office properties that previously sold for $500-1000/rsf selling for $350-300/rsf/ Very recently we are beginning to hear of I-680 Corridor Class A, well-located office buildings and complexes potentially on the way to Trustee sales in the $100-200/rsf…Read More→

14

Elon Musk’s DOGE Has Terminated 22 Federal Leases So Far

Feb 6, 2025

  It took DOGE only six days to terminate 22 Federal leases. GSA oversees the federal government’s 360 million square feet of owned and leased properties.  Landlords with GSA as a tenant may be worried as many leases have early termination clauses. As reported in a January 18, 2018 Colliers Insights report, “Investors and lenders…Read More→

15

Downtown Oakland 10-Story Office Buildings Sells For $60/rsf

Feb 4, 2025

1440 Broadway, Oakland,  a 91,000 square foot office building built from 103-1911, which was purchased in 2018 for $43.5 million, just sold for 5.5 million.  I have seen recent articles claiming we are at the bottom of the office market, and if the bottom was much lower this building would have been free…

16

Wells Fargo CEO Warns About Weak CRE

Jan 29, 2025

“The commercial real estate office fundamentals have not changed and remain weak…we’re 18 months into seeing the losses materialize…we still have quarters to go. We expect the market for office space will remain challenging for several years…” according to Wells Fargo CEO Mike Santomassimo.  San Francisco Business Times 1/30/5 So tenants should take advantage of…Read More→

17

Bay Area Major Tenants Apparently Downsizing

Jan 24, 2025

Robert Half in Bishop Ranch, San Ramon, just announced it was downsizing from 250,000 sf to 73,000 sf, and across the Bay in San Francisco Google just renewed and expanded its offices at Hill Plaza on the Embarcadero from 416,000 sf to 550,000 sf, but before you begin celebrating their expansion, they are also giving…Read More→

18

A Positive Spin On Bay Area Commercial Real Estate

Jan 23, 2025

It has been suggested to me that I try to put a more positive spin on my blogs regarding the office market…so here goes!  If you ever wanted to purchase a downtown San Francisco high rise office building for 30% of what the price was five years ago, now is your chance!  This week I…Read More→

19

When to Hold, When to Fold, $33 Million Dollar Office Building in 2017, $6.8 Million Dollars in 2025?

Jan 6, 2025

6001 Shellmond St., Emeryville, a110,000 sf Class A eight-story office building with adjacent shopping and retail was purchased in 2017 for $33 million, and the $21.6 million loan was just purchased for $6.8 million last month. $300/sf before,$62/sf now…

20

Sobering January 2, 2024, Headlines About Our Retail Market!

Jan 3, 2025

Bisnow headline, The retail apocalypse is back, Why It Seems Like All Of America’s Chains Are closing, then I opened my Morning Brief, “Party City Out Of Business After Nearly 40 Years”,  and the next headline, “The Container Store Files For Bankruptcy”

21

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Delinquencies Reaching Record Levels

Jan 2, 2025

“Roughly 11% of office buildings tied to CMBS loans were delinquent, beating the previous high watermark of 10.7% set during the Great Recession in December 2012, according to Trepp, which began tracking the CMBS sector in 2000. More than $2B in office loans became freshly delinquent in December, causing a 63-basis-point increase in the overall delinquency rate,…Read More→

22

Different Approaches to Return to the Office

Dec 17, 2024

One of my colleagues gave me an article,’ Meet the People Who Refused to Go Back to the Office and Lost Their Jobs’. It references Amazon, UPS, Morgan Chase and Boeing mandating that their employees return to the office five days a week. The article quotes workers who were mandated to return, who didn’t and…Read More→

23

GSA has 78 million sf of office leases either expiring or can be terminated by end of 2028

Dec 13, 2024

GSA has 78 million sf of office leases either expiring or can be terminated by end of 2028. While there appears to be a push to get all government employees back in the office five-days a week, The American Federation of Government Employees union just reached a deal with GSA to protect and extend hybrid…Read More→

24

Huge 773,000 Square Foot Office sublease in Menlo Park

Dec 3, 2024

Snowflake just sublet from Meta 773,000 square feet of office space, and this is significant for several reasons. First, for the San Francisco Bay Area this is a huge office deal, but as importantly, Snowflake previously relocated its headquarters to Bozman, Montana. Like many companies seeking a less expensive place to do business than our…Read More→

25

MajorCorporations Sell Large Bay Area Office/R&D Facilities

Nov 25, 2024

Cisco just listed 663,000 square feet of its Silicon Valley office and R & D space for sale. Situated on 32 acreas in North San Jose at Tasman and Zanker Roads, it is only a portion of its much larger facility there. Up in Folsom up near Sacramento, IntelC orporation is planning on selling its…Read More→

26

Commercial Real Estate Bits & Pieces Insights

Nov 20, 2024

I was at a recent broker event with specialists from different commercial real estate segments. Here are some interesting insights from this…the housing market has slowed down; less folks are buying homes and that may have dramatically impacted a number of other industries. Our industrial folks say the construction companies are downsizing, giving up warehouse…Read More→

27

Commercial Real Estate Double-Defaults Are on The Rise

Nov 13, 2024

A double-default is when a real estate borrower has trouble with their loan, either it is due and they are unable o refinance, or they can’t make the payments, and they do a work-out with the lender. The terms are adjusted, or the loan is extended, or other loan modifications so the lender doesn’t have…Read More→

28

Double-Whammy For landlords Giving Buildings Back To Lender

Oct 29, 2024

In BizNow 10/23/24 Jarred Schenke’s article warns about the tax exposure that might result from a landlord handing the keys of the property back to the lender. On top of losing whatever equity you may have once had, in addition to all the time and expense purchasing and then managing the property, there may be…Read More→

29

Office Vacancies in Some Areas at Record High, But What Do I Think of the Future?

Oct 10, 2024

  Much of the United States office markets are still experiencing vacancy rates in around 20%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area even higher, with Oakland at 29% and San Francisco at 35%. I have mentioned previously that the Amazon announcement mandating five-day a week return to office may have a positive impact on…Read More→

30

More Signs the Office Market Has Yet to Bottom

Sep 30, 2024

In San Francisco KPMG just announced it was downsizing from 143,000 sf of office space into 96,000 sf. This is a common trend amount financial services firms. “About 1,000 employees will be based out of the office, the same number based out of 555 Second. Chris Cimino, who leads KPMG’s San Francisco office, said the…Read More→

31

Many Experts Express Positive Signs Of Good News for the Office Market

Sep 13, 2024

Bisnow National 9/13/24  had a number of article headlines, including “Business Leaders Look to Increase Real Esate Investments”, Brookfield Predicts Robust Office Recover Market Rebound”, Major Investors Return to the Market”, Commercial Real Estate Investors Ready to Get Back in the Market”…not bad for just one day’s headlines!!!  

32

Less Than 1 in 6 Office Buildings Are Strong Candidates for Residential Conversion

Sep 3, 2024

Bisnow August 29, 2024, reported that 1 in 6 .S. office buildings are strong residential conversion candidates. On the one hand, it could be viewed as only 1 in 6, while a more optimistic slant would be 17% of U.S. office buildings may be residential conversion candidates.” Manhattan led U.S. markets with more than 53%…Read More→

33

AI Impact and Office Shadow Space

Aug 30, 2024

There have been a number of estimates of the job displacement, current and future, due to AI (Artificial Intelligence) and yes, there will be some offset due to new job opportunities in Ai. “300 million jobs could be lost to AI…44% of companies using or planning on using AI believe it will result in layoffs…Read More→

34

The Verdict is Still Out, but Flight to Quality & Experience Might Be Working

Aug 28, 2024

In a August 22,, 2024 Bisnow article quality office space is now table stakes and to win landlords are shooting for ‘flight to experience.” “It’s really about that experience you feel as you walk in,” Harvest Properties Senior Director of Development Danielle Friend said at the Grand Hyatt San Francisco during Bisnow’s State of the Bay Area…Read More→

35

Street View of What Office Tenants May Really Be Up To….

Aug 7, 2024

Recently I wanted to find out first-hand what tenants were doing with and in their office space, so I picked up a clipboard and personally visited a number of office tenants in suburban Class A office buildings. One complex had a huge, 80% empty, parking lot, Class A, and well maintained. I went door-to-door, not…Read More→

36

A String Of Positive CRE Headlines…Finally!

Jul 19, 2024

Bisnow July 19, 2024, had a string of very positive commercial real estate headlines. At the top was “Goldman Sacs Reports Gains in Real Estate Investments’ and when I dug into the article, it turns out they got ahead of the curve last year and wrote off a ton of poor investments, and now they…Read More→

37

The New York Times: Buyers Finding Deep Discounts in the Office Building Market

Jun 20, 2024

  A perfect storm of plunging property values for aging buildings, weak tenant demand coming out of the pandemic and high interest rates for new loans and refinancing has left the $2.4 trillion office building sector wobbling. In New York 1740 Broadway which Blackstone had paid $600 million for ten years earlier just sold for…Read More→

38

Offices Into Housing…Easier Said Than Done

Jun 18, 2024

Christopher Thornberg, founding partner and economist wit Beacon Economics, said at a recent presentation fo San Jose State ““How do you make housing more affordable? You build more housing… “You need to start taking down these office buildings and putting up apartments, However, Thornberg said he prefers “adaptive reuse” of existing office buildings rather than…Read More→

39

A Major Silver Lining to Deep-Discounted Office Building Sales

Jun 5, 2024

There are a number of reports around the country that price discounts on office buildings are a boon to non-profits who have access to cash to acquire these office facilities for their own long-term use. Bisnow June 3, 2024 “With overall U.S. commercial real estate pricing down 21% from its March 2022 peak, according to Green Street,…Read More→

40

Bloomberg Briefing Brings It Home, Even Top-Rated Bonds Backed by Commercial Real Estate Taking Losses

May 31, 2024

“For the first time since the financial crisis, investors in top-rated bonds backed by commercial real estate debt are getting hit with losses. Buyers of the AAA portion of a $308 million note backed by the mortgage on a building in midtown Manhattan got back less than three-quarters of their original investment after the loan was sold…Read More→

41

Banks Might Be First Industry To Mandate Full Return-to-Office

May 29, 2024

Not sure if it was bound to happen, and also not sure if just because there are mandates the office world will return to pre-Covid occupancy levels, but Bisnow May 24, 2024 reported that “Citigroup, HSBC and Barclays are among the financial institutions planning to tell workers that a return to five days a week…Read More→

42

Converting Office Space to Healthcare Facilities

May 24, 2024

Bisnow May 8, 2024, It is not easy or inexpensive, but many office projects have ample parking and are located near residential and commercial areas. “Leopardo Vice President of Healthcare David Rutledge said when developers are looking to build a new healthcare facility from the ground up, they often find that ideal sites like Knightly…Read More→

43

Office Buildings Around the Bay Area Planned for Demolition, Replaced With Housing

May 3, 2024

I was in a recent meeting and was made aware of multiple suburban office buildings where the tenants had been on month-to-month and were all finally given notice to vacate.  I met with a major office park investor who is planning on demolishing a number of very nice Class A office buildings, relocating the tenants…Read More→

44

San Francisco Tech Companies Have Dumped 8 Million Feet of Office Space!

Apr 26, 2024

The Standard, April 24, 2024: “By the end of 2019, the 20 biggest tech employers had leased more than 16 million square feet of space, nearly a quarter of the city’s total office stock. Now, those same companies are holding onto only 8.3 million square feet, according to data from real estate firm CBRE. “We’ve just…Read More→

45

Interesting Ideas on Getting Employees Back to the Office

Apr 19, 2024

Christopher Aquilina, SIOR with tenant rep firm Spring 4 n the United Kingdom, , said “Tenants are increasingly understanding that if they want to woo their staff back from WFH (work from home), they need to offer best-in-class office space in a convenient location.” He goes on to say  “Developers need to be part of…Read More→

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Jeffrey Weil, CCIM, MCR.h, SIOR

Executive Vice President
San Francisco Bay Area
1850 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200
Walnut Creek, Ca 94507
CA Lic. 00786195
Phone: +1 925 279 5590
License #: CA-00786195
Email: jeff.weil@colliers.com

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Contact Information

  • Jeffrey Weil
  • Colliers International
  • 1850 Mount Diablo Blvd., suite 200
  • CA Lic. 00786195
  • +1 (925) 279 5590
  • jeff.weil@colliers.com
  • www.officetimes.com

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