AI Impact and Office Shadow Space

There have been a number of estimates of the job displacement, current and future, due to AI (Artificial Intelligence) and yes, there will be some offset due to new job opportunities in Ai. “300 million jobs could be lost to AI…44% of companies using or planning on using AI believe it will result in layoffs in 2024…by the end of the decade, 14% of workers will have been forced by AI to change career…14% of all workers have been displaced from their jobs by AI…60% of all the jobs in advanced economies are at risk of being replaced by AI”  https://explodingtopics.com/blog/ai-replacing-jobs. This article cites PwC, McKinsey and other reputable sources for their statistics. In my visits to office buildings, sometimes going floor by floor throughout the entire office complex (what, an experienced office leasing expert looking for new clients?) I have noticed a significant number of large office suites with only a handful of employees. This is on a Tuesday or Wednesday, the most popular workdays for employees to actually be in the office. In an article titled WTF Are Shadow Space Vacancies (https://explodingtopics.com/blog/ai-replacing-jobs) published December 11, 2023, “The return to office appears to be stalling. Office occupancy has hovered around 50% all this year, according to data from Kastle Systems, a company that tracks office badge swipes. And companies now have a better picture of how much of their office space is actually getting used. Accordingly, about 75% of businesses plan to reduce office square footage next year (2024), according to a survey from hybrid work platform Robin, including responses from over 500 business owners and facilities managers. That’s up from 30% from last year. It comes amid financial challenges ushing them to cut back on costs, but also as they consider exactly what kind of spaces staff need while working on in-person on a  handful of days. The Robin survey also found about 40% of survey respondents said they are currently using only half of their available office space – and only 38% said they are using all of their office.”  My opinion, not backed by anything factual but my 48 years representing corporate America in leasing office space, is on top of our traditional office vacancy, which in many areas today ranges from 20-30%, an additional 10% or is shadow space, space leased but not occupied. In part due to hybrid work habits, and also I believe in part to AI actually allowing companies to get the same jobs done with less employees. What do you think?